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Expected Future Adoption of LEDs Based on Current Technology’s Trajectory

Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

U.S. Department of Energy, August 1, 2014

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has been at the forefront of the solid-state lighting revolution. Among its various activities, DOE has supported studies forecasting the market penetration of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) in general illumination applications since 2002. These forecasts provide a comprehensive overview of the expected path of LED adoption within the United States and estimate the energy savings offered by LED products out to year 2030. This, the sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, presents the results of the United States lighting market model, which leverages updated data sources and provides a more detailed breakdown of general lighting applications than presented in past forecasts. This study estimates the expected future adoption of LEDs based on the current trajectory for the technology and does not necessarily represent the maximum potential—both in terms of market penetration and energy savings—of LED technology.

The lighting market model assumes the market adoption of LED lighting technology is driven primarily by projected improvements in LED product efficacy and price, as well as established
technology diffusion rates. At the end of the analysis period, LEDs are anticipated to dominate lighting sales in each of the submarkets examined, comprising 84% of all sales by lumen-hours. This will dramatically lower national energy consumption. Without LEDs, the model projects that the energy consumption of the lighting sector would grow to approximately eight quadrillion Btu (quads). The market penetration of LEDs is projected to drive a 40% reduction in energy consumption, or a total energy savings of 3.0 quads, in 2030 alone, which is nearly the total energy consumed by 24 million United States homes today.